Epidemiology “for Dummies”

“What is an epidemic? This is when the incidence begins to rise sharply. Every day, with some high growth rates of 30-40 %, it goes up sharply. And so someone decided that at some point it should level out and be flat for a while. I will say this: all mathematical models regarding the epidemic process always fail. In my practice, not a single prediction came true. Why? Because there are so many variables in this process that it is impossible to calculate correctly. And these variables are constantly changing in one direction or the other. Look, I’ll give you an example. A closed city, it has 300 thousand children, and it turned out that the measles vaccine was not delivered there. As a result, 300 thousand children were unvaccinated against measles. But measles is a much more dangerous infection than coronavirus. So, the incidence soars sharply, and then abruptly goes down. At some point it reaches its peak, and then it goes out, and it turns out that about 40 % of the people in this town are not sick! Explain to me – why? After all, the probability of meeting with the pathogen in these unvaccinated people in the late stages of the development of the situation was greater than at the beginning of the epidemic. And this is the self-regulation of parasitic systems. This virus at its peak had already lost its virulence and became mildly virulent: there was a lot of “clinic”, but it was all light. And after that, the epidemic came to an abrupt end, because the virus continues to hit the body, but stopped cause disease. It lost its aggressiveness and became weakly virulent in order to survive as a species. No infection kills everyone completely, otherwise it will disappear as a biological species.”

The virus entered the unprotected population and spread rapidly, reaching more and more people. But here the laws of mechanics are fully applicable – remember about the gearbox in the car: “If you win in speed, you lose in strength!»

The virus seems to filter through our immune forces and, fighting them, loses its former power. That is, each time, getting into the next body, then goes a little weakened. The wave widens, but after a month or a month and a half, it begins to recede by itself: the more people are infected, the sooner the viruses lose their power, the ability to infect and kill.

A dossier on the virus. Fight with a shadow that constantly changes its size, shape and properties
After taking off, the incidence always goes down. This is what viruses need to survive and continue to exist.

A dossier on the virus. Fight with a shadow that constantly changes its size, shape and properties
Another point: if the virus is transmitted by an asymptomatic carrier, such as a child, then it is initially low-virulent and will not cause much further harm. In this case, children can act as “live vaccines”! But if you are infected from a seriously ill or weakened person, then the virus will pass to you more dangerous and aggressive (which we see in stories with doctors infected in hospitals).

Question: if the virus somehow fizzles out, then why do we fight it with quarantine and so on? We gain time, stretch the process, make the rise of the curve more gentle. (We don’t end up defeating him, he runs out of steam, the main thing for us is to wait it out with minimal losses.) Here’s what we see today: the wave is subsiding, the vast majority of cases are asymptomatic or with minimal symptoms. That’s it, I’m exhausted. The virus ate, was pumped by our blood and fell off. Hopefully for a long time. But in any case, if there is no mutation, then he will not do much harm (unless he is again appointed the villain of the media).

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